FAT-AUS-53723 Aug 11

An increased return for shareholders, a quicker and more efficient integration of a major acquisition and a sturdy guidance statement from Amcor says this defensive business is in great shape. Despite higher raw material costs, a higher Australian dollar and slowing economic growth generally, Amcor is a terrific stock to own in the current environment.

AMP delivered a winning first half result, with underlying earnings of $455 million comfortably ahead of expectations for something in the region of $440-450 million. This represents a formidable growth rate of 18.8% from the $383 million achieved in the first half of last year. The earnings growth was boosted by the AXA merger, which was completed on March 31 2011. Excluding the AXA boost, AMP’s existing earnings expanded by a more modest 3%.

Businesses aren’t immune from the environment they operate in, but good businesses tend to do at least comparatively well through the cycle. ARB Corporation has highlighted this once again. While investors worry about a double-dip US recession and European sovereign risk, it’s been business as usual for the 4WD vehicle accessory manufacturer. Who said manufacturing was dead in Australia?

Billabong’s headline numbers fell short of expectations, but not hugely. The company’s reported FY11 net profit of $119.1 million was around 4% below consensus forecasts. This alone does not justify the market’s savage reaction to the news. Releasing an earnings miss into an already weak market will always result in an over-reaction to the downside and this is a factor. The detail of the result does however provide more justification for the sell-off than the headline number suggests, also forcing us to change our view on the stock.

A torrid year for Fletcher Building encompassed the Christchurch earthquakes as well as the wholly disappointing Australian government decision to halt the home insulation retrofit program. Offsetting this was the successful acquisition of Crane Group in Australia plus a respectable underlying operational performance.

Several new long term contracts kicked in this year for Tox leading to a substantial lift in revenue and earnings. The pipeline of tenders is at $100 million as at the end of July, providing a potential re-run of this year’s big step up.

In a difficult year for retail businesses, Wesfarmers’ aggregate performance should be considered very robust. The combined retail earnings of Bunnings, Officeworks, Coles, Target and Kmart increased 8.2% to $2,532 million despite heavy price deflation in many categories and the reluctance of consumers to spend as much money on everyday goods.

Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke will make a speech at Jackson Hole, Wyoming this Friday that will have the potential to change the mood of world stock markets, or not.